The Numbers Game

By Charnie

Our family took a vacation to Newport, RI several years ago. Included in our sightseeing was a visit to the historic Touro Synagogue. In the bookshop there I picked up a rather amusing book called Boychiks in the Hood : Travels in the Hasidic Underground: by Robert Eisenberg which opens with a first sentence: “Imagine: It is the year 2075, and the only Jews left in the United States, aside from a few old-timers, are Hasidim and other Orthodox.” Read the first page.

For those of us who are a part of the “BT Phenomena” that doesn’t appear to be a far-fetched idea. The most visible proof is in keeping a family tree. I’m our family genealogist, i.e., “the keeper of the family tree”. There are as many branches in there as I’ve got information on. And it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to appreciate the fact that the frum branches are blossoming, while the others, for the most part, are wilting. It’s probably a safe guess that among the married participants of this blog, the median family size might be approximately 3-4 children.

The National Jewish Population Study also confirms this fact. While we as a nation are still suffering from extensive assimilation and disenchantment, there are some positive figures. For example, this chart from the 1990 Jewish population study shows that the frum community will be making a very ample contribution to K’al Yisroel’s continuity.

Even the recent election results from Israel would seem to confirm that fact, with Shas now having the 3rd most seats, ahead of Likud. And as of this writing, the votes from our brethren who were expelled from Gush Katif have not yet been counted. We all know people who’ve made aliyah. For the most part, it is Frum people who are going.

However, before we get too complacent, there is the reverse side of the coin. In the Jewish World Review on Wednesday March 29th is an article by Jonathan Tobin entitled If You Build It, Will They Come? It tells the story of a day school (albeit one under Conservative auspices) in Bucks County, PA (a suburb of Philadelphia) that will be closing its doors due to low enrollment. According to this writer, statistically, Jewish day school attendance has flattened since it originally rose in the 1990s. Much of this can be attributed to the fact that for unaffiliated families, the cost of a Yeshiva or day school is too high to be considered “worth it”. Possibly this is also true of suburban communities, which are often noted for their excellent public school systems. If a parent feels that they can get what’s important for free, it’s a hard job (that many contributors to this blog are intimately familiar with) to convince them that they should be spending upwards of $10,000 (a typical day school tuition) for each child’s education.

Additionally, for those of us here, there’s yet another coin. It’s called the Tunnel Vision coin. On one hand, it’s a great blessing to be able to live in a vibrant frum community, with its many amenities and conveniences, and the strength of its kehilla. But the reverse aspect is that we’re in danger of thinking that everyone is just like us… just awaiting that Shabbos invite and then shortly thereafter, they will become our next door neighbors. For those of us who work in the secular world, there are many reminders that we’re a long way off. For me, I still have trouble realizing that what’s preeminent in priority in my life means virtually nothing to many others. It’s always like a jolt when something occurs to remind me.

The most recent jolt in my case began rather innocuously. An old friend sent me an email about what she’s planning to wear on St. Patrick’s Day. I jokingly responded that I hoped she’s giving Purim “equal time”. Her response was that she’s not too familiar with what Purim is. Believe me; I stared at that email for quite awhile in shock. Not know about Purim! How is that possible? But there once was a time when I also would have expressed similar sentiments. It just seems like eons ago.

As a BT, I must admit that I’m quite fascinated by the statistics that indicate growth in the Orthodox world. Although I don’t personally have any connection to the Satmar community, there’s a certain sense of glee in knowing that they are now buying houses in the Brownsville and Ft. Clinton communities of Brooklyn, having virtually run out of room to grow in Williamsburg. When we drive through Brooklyn, my children have been known to ask “isn’t everyone in Brooklyn frum?” The view from certain parts of Ocean Parkway would seem to appear as if that’s a fact.

In all, we can’t afford to become complacent, but we should also enjoy the nachas we’re adding!

6 comments on “The Numbers Game

  1. I love your writing style and find this piece very interesting, strangely enough, it was you that got me to think outside the box about this stuff. I remember telling you that I felt compelled to reproduce within the “Jewish Race” because of how Hitler tried to obliterate it and it was my responsibility, as an ethnic Jew, to see he didn’t succeed. You pointed out that I shouldn’t feel this way out of hate, but compassion and embracing of the Jewish faith. In my heart of hearts I know you were right and I chose to embrace secularism. I doubt any of my three kids will end up perpetuating the Jewish race, and unless it means anything to them, they shouldn’t. But, as you know, I’ll always respect your views and can understand where they are coming from. Having faith in religion, I feel is a gift that I do not possess. But my love for you as a dear friend transcends all of that.

  2. Jacob, I believe you caught the gist of what I was expressing quite well. When I look at the aforementioned family tree, it’s very sad to see those “wilting branches”, because those are often people that I love. I’m proud of the fact that they often contact me about Jewish issues. The same is true of old friends. We DO have a positive impact.

  3. Gershon,

    I don’t believe the author was getting complacent at the expense of the silent holocaust engulfing the non-Orthodox world. To her it was expressing some beacon of hope.

    To cite a personal example, I’ve hosted not-yet-observant brethren who were colleagues at work who ASKED to come for a Shabbos. Perhaps just seeing a yarmulke and tzitzes clad person was enough to pique their interest in trying this out.

    Hopefully on that note, the increased visibility of frum Yidden in general (due mostly to birthrate) will provide a catalyst to cause many a pintele Yid to burn a little brighter and make them think at least subconsciously “maybe there is something to this Judaism thing”.

    Of course, for the aware ones, which are probably the majority of the regulars at this cite, we know that we have our hishtadlus as well to make ourselves approachable and to exercise Derech Eretz as if the world hinged on it.

    It would be tragic for anyone, whether FFB or BT to feel good about Orthodox growth through some kind of vendetta against the non-(not yet?)-Orthodox. But I didn’t get that feeling from this posting.

  4. It’s very hard for me to imagine getting complacent. It’s not an “us” and “them” situation. The saddest part of that study is that the percentage growth of Orthodox Jews is largely reflective of the dissapearance of our non-observant brothers, sisters, cousins, neices and nephews. Hardly anything to feel good about.

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